Spot Bitcoin ETF - 90% chance

The market is confident that a Spot Bitcoin ETF is coming and the Bitcoin price is telling us to pay attention!

There's a 90% chance of approval by the 10th of January according to Bloomberg analysts, and the SEC is in a brief window, that closes this Friday, in which it could approve 7 Bitcoin ETFs at once!

But will they? Bitcoin price action suggest they will.

Bitcoin Price Action is Spicy

Though the price backed off a bit from recent 2023 highs, this could be due more to technicals and a retreat from short-term exuberance.

You can clearly see the upward trend in this parallel trading channel. No surprise, BTC stalled out when it reached the upper band of that channel.

This is called a re-trace, in trading-speak.

But, there is absolutely no denying that Bitcoin price has been on fire lately.

After all, it did trade up from 27K to 38K in about 4 weeks.

That’s a 40% move.

Not bad. And on fairly strong volume, as you can see when compared to recent weekly volumes.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust Offers a Hint

The price action on Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust and the discount to net asset value (NAV) might offer a clue. As we can see below, the gap has been rapidly closing.

This discount vs net asset value has persisted all through the bear market because there were more sellers than buyers of GBTC shares.

Now that trend is reversing fast because buyers are assuming the Trust will be converted into an ETF after Grayscale’s court win.

But why now, why all the excitement?

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Cheers,
Archie, James, & Joe